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Cattle on Feed and Inventory Reports    07/24 14:05
By John A. Harrington

                        USDA Actual  Average Guess      Range
Cattle On Feed:
On Feed July 1             102%       101.50%      100.0-102.0%
Placed in June             101%        99.00%       93.5-104.0%
Marketed June               95%        94.50%        94.0-97.5%
July 1 Cattle Inventory:
All Cattle                 102%       101.50%      101.0-102.0%
Total Cows                 102%       102.50%      101.5-103.5%
Beef Cows                  103%       103.00%      102.0-104.0%
Milk Cows                  101%       100.50%      100.5-100.5%
Total Heifers Over 500#    102%       101.50%      100.0-102.5%
Beef Replacements          107%       105.00%      102.5-109.5%
Milk Replacements          102%       100.50%       99.5-101.5%
Other heifers               99%        99.50%       96.5-101.0%
Steers 500# Plus           103%       101.50%      100.0-103.0%
Bulls 500# Plus            100%       101.50%      100.0-102.5%
Calves Under 500#          102%       101.50%      101.0-102.0%
2015 Calf Crop             102%       101.50%      101.0-102.0%

The Cattle on Feed report appears to be neutral to somewhat 
negative, specifically driven by placement activity that turned 
out to be somewhat larger than the trade expected. Even though 
this looks a bit defensive on paper, discounted futures probably 
have such discouraging news already traded. The report also 
estimated total cattle on feed in the U.S. at 12.1 million, up 
2% from a year ago. Note that big lot activity typically 
accounts for about 85% of the total. 
The Cattle Inventory report: Clearly US ranchers are moving to 
expand cattle numbers. However, these mid-year inventory appears 
to be well anticipated by analysts, so we don't expect to see 
much reaction when trading resumes on Monday. Note that heifers 
kept for beef replacement numbered considerably above 
expectations, suggesting that feeder cattle supplies will remain 
tight through the balance of the year as more heifers are 
directed into the cattle herd. 


For more Harrington comments, check out 
http//:www.feelofthemarket.com
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