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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/20 11:11

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower across the board at midday due to good weather and big 
production ideas.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 30. The interest 
rate products are higher. The dollar index is 14 higher. Energies are mixed 
with crude oil up 0.90. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are 
mixed with gold down $1. 


   Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with pressure from the firmer 
dollar and high anecdotal yield numbers from the ongoing crop tour. The crop 
tour continues to move along with generally good potential being found with 
Illinois and Iowa on deck for today. The weather is a non-issue for corn this 
week. Moisture is around and conditions warm and forecasts for moisture for the 
northern growing areas where August moisture can do the most good. In another 
two weeks moisture should be viewed as bad for corn. Ethanol production was up 
0.64%, stocks were up 2.76%, and gasoline demand was 1.65% lower. This has 
ethanol futures down along with hedge pressure since corn is down.  On the 
December chart futures have moved below $3.70 where we find both the 10-day and 
20-day moving average so support is at the recent contract low at $3.58. The 
first resistance area, above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages is the $3.81 
recent high.


   Soybean trade is 2 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade moving back into 
the lower part of the recent range. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 30 to 
40 points higher. Weather looks improved for soybeans in the near term but the 
rain will have to fall soon in some of the areas. Later-group seed varieties 
will benefit from late August into early September yields as they will still 
produce more pods. Old crop supply tightness should keep the September contract 
active, but expectations for a big new crop harvest have limited upside 
bounces. Nearby basis remains very firm at the processors. The crop tour 
continues to find plenty of pods so far, but lagging maturity in general. On 
the chart, trade will need to get positive closes above the 10-day moving 
average at $10.60 to turn the chart positive. Support is at the $10.38 low 
printed on last week; expect sell stops below this low. 


   Wheat trade is 5 to 12 cents lower across the three contracts at midday. The 
futures are giving back gains from Tuesday. Spread trade continues to firm 
between contract months and classes of wheat, which is a signal of continued 
commercial buying. The spring wheat harvest will likely continue to be slow, 
and trade will watch further development in the Ukraine, with the Ukrainian 
government going on the offensive vs. the rebels. Support is $6.21 at the 
10-day moving average on the Kansas City contract with Chicago support at the 
$5.45 10-day moving average, which trade has eased back below at midday. 
Spillover pressure from the row crop has been weighing on wheat and may 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor. He can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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