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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          03/30 11:46

   Cattle Futures Turn Lower Monday Morning                

   Initial buyer support seen in the livestock market has quickly washed away 
with aggressive pressure seen in both live cattle and feeder cattle trade. Lean 
hog futures remain mixed as gains in deferred contracts are countering the 
nearby contract pressure. 

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst


   Early buyer support seen in the livestock market has created a strong turn 
lower in live cattle and feeder cattle futures. The lack of stability in cattle 
trade despite a turn higher in cash cattle prices and higher beef values is 
pointing to some additional end of the month and quarter liquidation. Corn 
prices are higher in light trade. May corn futures are 2 cents per bushel 
higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 274 points 
higher while Nasdaq is up 47 points.


   Initial buyer support early Monday morning has turned into a moderate 
selloff that is being led by aggressive pressure in the feeder cattle complex. 
The firmness in boxed beef values is unable to gain any attention from live 
cattle futures trade with losses holding from 50 to 70 cents per cwt at midday. 
Cash cattle trade remains quiet Monday morning, which is not unexpected as 
packers continue to focus on upcoming needs through the following week. It is 
likely that trade will be pushed to the end of the week once again. Asking 
prices are undeveloped for the most part, but expected to be seen around $167 
and higher in the South and $267 to $268 in the North. Beef cut-outs at midday 
are higher, $2.57 higher (select) and up $1.70 per cwt (choice) with light 
movement of 53 total loads reported (24 loads of choice cuts, 10 loads of 
select cuts, seven loads of trimmings, 12 loads of ground beef).


   Initial buyer interest which was seen through the cattle complex and feeder 
cattle trade specifically was quickly offset by aggressive selling pressure. 
The lack of depth in buyer support was evident, as nearby contracts quickly 
posted losses of $1.50 to $2 per cwt. So far, it appears that additional 
liquidation is not developing, but if additional bullish support does not 
develop through the next few hours of trade, some end of the month and quarter 
liquidation may quickly develop, which could spark sharp market losses.    


   Moderate early buyer support across the entire complex has led to moderate 
pressure in nearby contracts, while deferred buyer support remains solidly 
rooted. Traders continue to adjust positions following Friday's hogs and pigs 
report while the focus in nearby contracts has once again moved back to 
abundant supplies of hogs near term. The lack of support through cattle markets 
during the morning has once again limited outside buyer interest from stepping 
back into the complex. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the 
National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa 
Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $2.42 
per cwt, to $53.46 with a full range of $50.00 to $55.50 per cwt on 135 head 
selling. The National Pork Plant Report is reported 177 loads selling as prices 
gaining $0.30 per cwt. Lean hog index for 3/26 is at $60.39 down 0.42, with a 
projected two-day index of $59.96 down 0.43.  

   Rick Kment can be reached at 


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