DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/19 11:52

   Stronger Equity Markets Help Bolster Livestock Markets

   Bids are currently being offered in the North, but still no cattle have 
traded.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   It's a prosperous day for the livestock markets as all three markets are 
trading higher. Some bids are currently being offered in the North at $182 live 
in Nebraska and $288 dressed in Iowa -- but still no sales have been reported. 
December corn is down 5 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up 
$0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 457.42 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,500 mt for 2024 
were up 36% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. The 
three largest buyers were South Korea (3,700 mt), China (3,000 mt) and Japan 
(2,900 mt). Pork net sales of 29,000 mt for 2024 were down 3% from the previous 
week, but up 3% from the previous 4-week average. The three largest buyers were 
Japan (7,900 mt), Mexico (5,700 mt) and Colombia (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is seeing phenomenal traders support this morning as 
the equity markets are performing well following Chairman Powell's announcement 
yesterday that interest rates were going to be cut by a half of a point. 
October live cattle are up $1.47 at $179.77, December live cattle are up $1.52 
at $181.37 and February live cattle are up $1.45 at $182.52. The spot December 
contract is currently trading above its 40-day moving average which has been a 
resistance point in which traders have mostly shied away from since the equity 
meltdown early in August. The market's 40-day moving average will continue to 
be a threshold worth monitoring as closes above that price point signal 
bullishness but closed beneath that point signal market skepticism and some 
fear. A few bids are currently on the table in the North, but at this point 
still no sales have been reported as packers and feedlot managers go toe to 
toe. Bids of $182 live are currently being offered in Nebraska, and dressed 
bids of $288 are being offered in Iowa. Asking prices are noted in the South at 
$184 to $185, but still remain unestablished in the North. Packer interest 
could improve later this afternoon but with feedlot managers eager to hold cash 
prices steady this week, trade will likely be delayed until Friday.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: Choice down $1.01 ($300.37) and select down 
$0.26 ($289.49) with a movement of 104 loads (70.18 loads of choice, 10.31 
loads of select, 4.67 loads of trim and 18.89 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   With the Dow Jones up over 450 points, and the nearby live cattle contracts 
rallying over $1.00 higher, the feeder cattle complex is being robustly 
supported from strong trader interest and technical support. September feeders 
are up $2.27 at $245.10, October feeders are up $3.52 at $243.47 and November 
feeders are up $2.90 $241.02. It's impressive to see the spot October contract 
well above its 40-day moving average which has been a nearby hurdle in which 
traders have resistance up until this point, to take on as there simply hasn't 
been enough support in the marketplace to do so confidently.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is trading mixed with the nearby contracts trading 
higher, and the deferred contracts trading modestly lower. It's helpful that 
midday pork cutout values are up as demand has been mixed earlier this week. 
October lean hogs are up $0.10 at $82.15, December lean hogs are up $0.35 at 
$74.22 and February lean hogs are up $0.30 at $77.30. The nearby contracts are 
trading in territory not last traded at since early June, which means that the 
complex could run into trader nervousness as they hope that support is 
sufficient to support these levels.

   The projected lean hog index for 9/18/2024 is up $0.16 at $84.38, and the 
actual index for 9/17/2024 is steady at $84.22. Hog prices on the Daily Direct 
Morning Hog Report average $76.31, ranging from $72.00 to $79.00 on 1,557 head 
and a five-day rolling average of $76.47. Pork cutouts total 181.63 loads with 
163.49 loads of pork cuts and 18.14 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up 
$1.35, $95.76.

    

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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